Jamming the signal

The signal emanating from the digital sphere can be closely related to the "real" public opinion. Based on data on the French presidential race of 2007, a visibility index designed by Swammer correlates reasonably well with the results of opinion polls and with the actual result of the electoral race. (read further down in the www series category to find relevant posts).

The situation might be different elsewhere. While there is considerable buzz surrounding Ron Paul, a republican candidate, his bid fails to translate into significant numbers if we consider tracking polls.

Visibility data as captured by Swammer places Paul a distant fourth, with roughly half of the leader's score (McCain). If ranking matches tracking polls, the distance if much less -- tracking polls give a 5-to-1 lead to McCain compared to a 2-1 lead in visibility. More striking, perhaps, is Google trends, which shows Ron Paul ahead of McCain in the number of search queries.

Why?

Understanding when/how/why Internet-initiated buzz becomes commonplace opinions may have to do with the breadth of the buzz, more than it relates to its intensity.