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May 08, 2007

Another example

(if you come across this post by accident -- this post is about a time series that I am not at liberty to discuss freely. You may want to click on the category link to get a feel for what is happening)

Below are the two main series. There is one very obvious outlier at period 200.

Rs1_4 

I've computed the ratio of one series over the other (R/S). I've also fitted a robust estimate of a non-linear trend of the form y = a + b(T^delta/(T+gamma)). A robust estimator is probably better in this case because there are several outliers (9 obvious instances). There is also a noticeable wave pattern occurring between periods 145-209.

Rs2

The third graph shows the reciprocal series (S/R).

Rs3_2   

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